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Mainline jets - Boeing 787 and Airbus A330 markets

One aspect of the market for the Boeing 787 is the replacement of Boeing 767 and Airbus A330 aircraft already in service or on order. This is quite a substantial portion of demand, with 1,453 of these types already in service, on order or in storage. (The assumption here is that the stored aircraft still have economic value and most will return to service. The oldest stored 767 is 22 years old. Just 2 A330s are stored.) The oldest A330 was built in 1992, is coming up to 12 years old, and will be at least 16 years old when the 787 enters service.

Boeing 767 and Airbus A330 operators

There are 108 operators of the 767 alone, with 824 aircraft to give an average 7.6 aircraft each. Interestingly the 43 operators of the A330 alone, with 326 aircraft, also have an average 7.6 aircraft each. Sixteen airlines operate both types. They have an average 10 767s and 9 A330s for a fleet average of 19 aircraft.

There are 984 767s vs. 469 A330s - that is 110% more 767s than A330s, but the 767 has been in production twice as long. The A330 still has a large order backlog with 36% of the 469 aircraft yet to be delivered, compared to 3% for the 767. Hence the newer aircraft continues to carry respectable demand. Notably the newest variant of the 767, the 767-400, has just one aircraft on order that has yet to be delivered, largely due to its inferior range performance and cancellation of the planned 767-400ERX in favour of the 787.

Concluding the fleet analysis, the data shows that the A330 has performed equally to the 767 at comparable stages in the life of each product.

Where does all this place the 787 and A330?

All the 787 orders announced to date have been from customers that only operate the 767, and indeed this is a large pool of latent demand for the 787 to draw from. With the relatively low market performance of the 767 over recent years, there is plenty of interest in its successor, which will fuel early replacement orders. With 984 aircraft to replace and potential for many new routes with the much longer range of the 787, it is not difficult to see where Boeing's statement of airline interest in around 600 aircraft is coming from.

The A330 also continues to perform strongly and benefits from the economic advantage of commonality across Airbus types, including cross-crew qualification and mixed fleet flying.

The 787 is set to create many headlines in terms of order placements, but this will not be entirely at the expense of the A330 which is continuing to perform well in the market, especially at its point in the product life cycle.

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7E7 replacement market: Number of airlines

7E7 replacement market: Number of aircraft